Live satellite update Center eye major hurricane Genevieve [pMIu3r90xOo]
This is a dangerous system. Possible hazards include damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding. Genevieve continues to intensify this afternoon (26 July) and evening. Satellite imagery reveals a pronounced, circular, warming eye with a deep band of convection wrapping around the inner core. GLM satellite data shows that lightning has been occurring in the eastern and northern eyewalls for the last several hours. Latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 126–142 knots. The TAFB subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate is T6.5/127 knots. Based on these values and latest satellite trends, the current intensity is increased to 155 mph (135 knots), and Genevieve is a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Environmental conditions remain conducive for intensification, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the track. Based on these conditions and the various guidance some additional strengthening is possible, and the peak intensity forecast has been raised to 160 mph (140 knots). Thereafter, hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles could cause intensity fluctuations. Given current trends and favorable conditions, the short-term intensity forecast lies above the model guidance. In about 2–3 days, Genevieve is forecast to cross cooler sea surface temperatures, encounter drier mid-level air, and enter a more stable environment. Thus, gradual to steady weakening is expected, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near consensus aids in the extended period. Genevieve is moving west-northwestward at 300/12 knots. The storm is moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward to northwestward as it rounds the southwestern edge of the aforementioned ridge through the forecast period, with a slight decrease in forward speed. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.